Patricio Xavier Martinez
ESMTY --:--

06 / 07, Sports analytics

NFL Mastery Model

A model that finds the true line for every NFL game, with automated weekly reports.

In use
  • Python
  • DuckDB
  • nflverse
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Scheduled jobs
Website coming soonWrite to me
Role
Builder
Stage
In use
Sector
Sports analytics
Started
19 September 2026

(01)

What it is

I wasn't into the NFL as a kid. Fantasy football in high school changed that. I fell in love with the stats and wanted to understand how sportsbooks set their lines, so I built my own model.

(02)

The problem

Most people bet on feel. I wanted to know what a game is actually worth before looking at the market.

(03)

What it does

  • From data to a price

    A self-built warehouse of every play since 2021 feeds projections, then 100,000 simulations of each game produce its true line.

  • Compared against the market

    The true line is compared with prices from 47 sportsbooks after removing their margin.

  • Discipline built in

    Quarter-Kelly sizing with caps per bet and per week, and every pick graded against the closing line to measure real skill.

  • Runs on its own

    Odds are captured on a schedule and a report goes out before every slate: Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights, and Monday. Results are graded every Tuesday.

(04)

Timeline

  1. The drive-by-drive simulation engine, calibrated on play-by-play data, with its first weekly outputs.

  2. Validation turned into an automated test suite that checks calibration and market anchoring on every change.

  3. A player-usage rebuild tested against the old approach. It did not improve yardage, so I said so and kept the old one.

  4. A field-goal miss counted twice was found and fixed. Predictions are now committed before each measurement.

  5. Weekly cards from a frozen version of the engine, graded against real closing odds.

  6. A holdout rule: nothing is fitted on 2026 data, which is kept as a separate check.

  7. A new release with the full test suite passing.

  8. Today

    In use

  9. Next

    The NBA version is next, built the same way.

For research and entertainment only. It forecasts on paper and is measured honestly against the closing line; I don't claim it beats the market. Variables and weights stay confidential.

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